Do liberals, moderates, and conservatives respectively vote Democratic, split, and Republican in roughly equal proportions across states, the difference being that the Wyoming breakdown is 14%/47%/39% while Vermont's is 32%/44%/24%? Or do Vermont's liberals, moderates, and conservatives all tend to be more liberal than Wyoming's liberals, moderates, and conservatives tend to be? To formulate an answer, let's ask the question "Is a moderate a moderate is a moderate in the US, or is the definition of 'moderate' contingent upon the political atmosphere said moderate exists in?"
The proceeding table ranks states by what percentages of their self-described moderates voted for Obama in the 2008 presidential election. The states are colored according to their contemporary political profiles, with purple states representing those in which Obama's total vote share ranged between 46%-54%.
The correlation between how a state voted and how its moderates voted is .93 (p = 0). That is, the relationship is nearly perfect, as a cursory glance at the table pretty clearly illustrates. As 2008 was a good year for Democrats, it's not surprising that a moderate majorities across most of the country went for him.
But the state-level differences are pronounced and predicted by the general political climate of those states to a significant degree. To some extent, moderates probably go with the flow. Put in another way, conditions 'on the ground' are more determinative of what a moderate is than Fox News and CNN definitions of "moderate" are. For an extreme example of this, consider that Wyoming's liberals were nearly three times as supportive of McCain as DC's moderates were.
The proceeding table ranks states by what percentages of their self-described moderates voted for Obama in the 2008 presidential election. The states are colored according to their contemporary political profiles, with purple states representing those in which Obama's total vote share ranged between 46%-54%.
State | Obama % |
1. District of Columbia | 92 |
2. Hawaii | 75 |
3. Vermont | 69 |
4. New York | 68 |
5. Oregon | 67 |
5. California | 67 |
5. Delaware | 67 |
5. Illinois | 67 |
9. Rhode Island | 66 |
10. Washington | 65 |
11. Nevada | 64 |
11. Maryland | 64 |
13. North Carolina | 63 |
13. Colorado | 63 |
13. Iowa | 63 |
13. Wisconsin | 63 |
13. Michigan | 63 |
13. Maine | 63 |
13. Connecticut | 63 |
20. New Mexico | 62 |
21. Missouri | 61 |
21. Ohio | 61 |
23. Indiana | 60 |
23. New Hampshire | 60 |
25. Massachusetts | 59 |
26. South Carolina | 58 |
26. Georgia | 58 |
26. Virginia | 58 |
26. Minnesota | 58 |
26. Pennsylvania | 58 |
26. New Jersey | 58 |
32. Florida | 57 |
33. Montana | 56 |
34. Mississippi | 55 |
35. Kentucky | 53 |
35. Texas | 53 |
35. South Dakota | 53 |
38. Utah | 52 |
38. Arkansas | 52 |
38. Kansas | 52 |
38. Arizona | 52 |
38. North Dakota | 52 |
43. West Virginia | 51 |
44. Nebraska | 50 |
45. Alabama | 49 |
46. Idaho | 48 |
46. Tennessee | 48 |
48. Louisiana | 45 |
49. Alaska | 44 |
50. Oklahoma | 43 |
51. Wyoming | 40 |
The correlation between how a state voted and how its moderates voted is .93 (p = 0). That is, the relationship is nearly perfect, as a cursory glance at the table pretty clearly illustrates. As 2008 was a good year for Democrats, it's not surprising that a moderate majorities across most of the country went for him.
But the state-level differences are pronounced and predicted by the general political climate of those states to a significant degree. To some extent, moderates probably go with the flow. Put in another way, conditions 'on the ground' are more determinative of what a moderate is than Fox News and CNN definitions of "moderate" are. For an extreme example of this, consider that Wyoming's liberals were nearly three times as supportive of McCain as DC's moderates were.
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