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Saturday, April 28, 2012

Moderate is a moderate is a moderate?

Do liberals, moderates, and conservatives respectively vote Democratic, split, and Republican in roughly equal proportions across states, the difference being that the Wyoming breakdown is 14%/47%/39% while Vermont's is 32%/44%/24%? Or do Vermont's liberals, moderates, and conservatives all tend to be more liberal than Wyoming's liberals, moderates, and conservatives tend to be? To formulate an answer, let's ask the question "Is a moderate a moderate is a moderate in the US, or is the definition of 'moderate' contingent upon the political atmosphere said moderate exists in?"

The proceeding table ranks states by what percentages of their self-described moderates voted for Obama in the 2008 presidential election. The states are colored according to their contemporary political profiles, with purple states representing those in which Obama's total vote share ranged between 46%-54%.

StateObama %
1. District of Columbia92
2. Hawaii75
3. Vermont69
4. New York68
5. Oregon67
5. California67
5. Delaware67
5. Illinois67
9. Rhode Island66
10. Washington65
11. Nevada64
11. Maryland64
13. North Carolina63
13. Colorado63
13. Iowa63
13. Wisconsin63
13. Michigan63
13. Maine63
13. Connecticut63
20. New Mexico62
21. Missouri61
21. Ohio61
23. Indiana60
23. New Hampshire60
25. Massachusetts59
26. South Carolina58
26. Georgia58
26. Virginia58
26. Minnesota58
26. Pennsylvania58
26. New Jersey58
32. Florida57
33. Montana56
34. Mississippi55
35. Kentucky53
35. Texas53
35. South Dakota53
38. Utah52
38. Arkansas52
38. Kansas52
38. Arizona52
38. North Dakota52
43. West Virginia51
44. Nebraska50
45. Alabama49
46. Idaho48
46. Tennessee48
48. Louisiana45
49. Alaska44
50. Oklahoma43
51. Wyoming40

The correlation between how a state voted and how its moderates voted is .93 (p = 0). That is, the relationship is nearly perfect, as a cursory glance at the table pretty clearly illustrates. As 2008 was a good year for Democrats, it's not surprising that a moderate majorities across most of the country went for him.

But the state-level differences are pronounced and predicted by the general political climate of those states to a significant degree. To some extent, moderates probably go with the flow. Put in another way, conditions 'on the ground' are more determinative of what a moderate is than Fox News and CNN definitions of "moderate" are. For an extreme example of this, consider that Wyoming's liberals were nearly three times as supportive of McCain as DC's moderates were.

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