Give me the republic or give me death

Watching the two-season HBO series Rome was an enjoyable experience for this amateur interested in the history of the republic and later empire. The juxtaposition of stoicism and epicureanism in the two historically insignificant protagonists, the skillful crafting of a narrative in a world that is in some ways strikingly similar to our own but in others utterly alien to it, the immensely satisfying casting--combine for one hell of a historically fictional ride.

On that last point regarding the casting, though, a couple of the portrayals bugged me. Octavia, not for aesthetic reasons, but because in the series she's an irresponsible hedonist when the historical consensus seems to be that she pulled off quite the balancing act, managing to remain loyal, faithful, and contemporarily dignified both to her brother Augustus and her husband Mark Antony even after the two most powerful men in the moribund republic were on a seemingly inevitable path to war.

The other is Cato (the Younger), the unflinching Republican who uncompromisingly opposed Julius Caesar, and, in so doing, helped prod Pompey into forcing Caesar to march on Rome. I find affinity for the historical Cato to come easily, but the series tests that by portraying him as a bit of a stammering, quixotic buffoon.

Randall Parker's recent post entitled "Cato of the Republic was a fool", however, makes the HBO perspective more easily comprehensible:

Cato was one of the leaders in the Roman Republic who maneuvered Julius Caesar into a position where his only choices were to either get convicted of a crime by the Senate (thereby losing all power, possibly his life, and with his best outcome a life in exile) or to overthrow the Republic. Caesar's decision was not surprising. His ability to execute on his decision was also not surprising. Caesar was an incredible dynamo, a great leader of men who inspired intense loyalty and devotion in those he led. Cato, by contrast, was a fool. He helped accelerate the death of the Republic. 

... 

Cato serves as an inspiration for the modern day Libertarians at the Cato Institute. They look up to a guy who overplayed his hand in a Rome where few deeply shared his principles and views. Cato's views found even less support among the native peoples in most of the conquered lands which the Romans ruled. Does this sound familiar? 

Why are open borders Libertarians wrong on immigration? For reasons similar to why Cato was wrong about Caesar: a refusal to acknowledge that pursuit of unachievable ideals can result in worse outcomes.

With all the caveats about enormous differences in time and place, one might make the argument that Ron Paul is a sort of Cato of our times. However, it is such incorrigibility that allows inspiration to survive two millenia and a transcontinental journey across the Atlantic.

Like Cicero, posterity might remember David Brooks as more effectual among his contemporaries than Cato then or Paul now, but history's great moderates lack the appeal that history's more committed giants do. What modern think tank takes its namesake from Cicero? What Christian denomination from Erasmus?

NFL post-season correlations between wins and various stats

++Addition++Steve Sailer comments:

Regarding turnovers, another way to look at them is to separate interceptions and fumbles, and then look at total fumbles versus fumbles lost. It seems pretty likely that once the ball goes on the ground, it's sheer luck who winds up with it. (Both teams grapple like mad to get the ball.) So, the number of fumbles in a game is a measure of skill, but the percentage of fumbles lost is the most obvious and perhaps most important single measure of luck.

My emphasis on what strikes me as one hell of an insight into the game.

---

Having looked at several years of regular season NFL data, my working assumption is that, more than anything else, winning is about having an offense that is capable of moving the ball through the air, and that such an observation has not just contemporary relevance, but is historically descriptive as well (though the trend has become increasingly pronounced over time). It's boorish to so audaciously insinuating that I've discovered the key to success (not to mention a little painful, as I grew up as a votary of "Marty Ball"). If utilizing an occasional run for no other reason than to keep intact the integrity of the play action is how to become this year's Kansas City Chiefs, well--wait, at 9-0, they're 27th in passing and 12th in rushing. Like I said, boorish.

Speaking of our hometown Chiefs, juxtaposing the ball-controlling, defensively-led, conservative-play-calling Chiefs' style with the high-flying, shoot-out-welcoming Broncos is timely enough. I'd be happy to have this post thrown in my face this Sunday night, but if I had to bet on it, I'm not betting against Peyton Manning, aging agitated ankles be damned.

Sports commentators--many of them former players--regularly espouse phrases like "defenses win championships" and "to win, they'll need to maintain the ground game" in the post-season. Even if being able to pick apart the bottom of the division during the regular season gets a team into the playoffs, perhaps the dynamics are different at that elite-of-the-elite level.

Looking at the results from the last five years of post-season play (60 teams), the following stats correlate with playoff win percentage as relayed in the table below. Italics indicate a correlation in the 'unexpected' direction (average yards gained per rush play correlating inversely with winning, for example--that is, the more efficient a team has been moving the ball on the ground, the worse they tend to fare). Asterisks indicate a lack of statistical significance in the correlation at 95% confidence:

Offense	Wins
Turnover ratio	.62
Passer rating	.52
Yards per pass play	.45
Time of possession	.31
Yards per play	.27
3rd down conversion %	.26
Total yards gained per game	.25
Rush yards per game	.24*
Pass yards per game	.15*
1st downs per game	.10*
Yards per rush play	.10*
Defense
Rush yards allowed per game	.42
3rd down conversion % allowed	.34
Opposing passer rating	.31
Yards allowed per pass play	.28
Yards allowed per play	.20*
Yards allowed per game	.18*
Yards allowed per rush play	.08*
Pass yards allowed per game	.07*
1st downs allowed per game	.02*

A few notes:

- Turnover ratio and time of possession are no more justifiably classified as offensive than as defensive.

- This methodological approach probably doesn't work as well in the post-season as it does during the regular season due to issues like home field advantage, #1 and #2 seeds having a buy week, more weather variation than during the regular season, etc, but it's still useful.

- Special teams stats are not included. They are far less informative than defensive and especially offensive numbers during the regular season. I expect nothing different in the post-season based on the similarities between offensive and defensive correlations during the regular seasons and post-seasons. Due to the time required to do this sort of data, I elected not to include special teams stats.

Relative to what we find during the regular season, turnovers are even more crucial in post-season play than they are during weeks 1-17. That's comprehensible given that teams are generally more evenly-matched during the playoffs than they are during the regular season, so giveaways are harder to overcome than they are during the regular season.

The quarterback spot is football's marquee position, and justifiably so. Just as is the case during the regular season, there is little that is as predictive of winning as a QB's passer rating in the playoffs. Using the bemusing formula has an advantage over other stats that are based primarily on simple averages--it negates the problems this sort of analysis has when teams intentionally run out the clock by keeping the ball on the ground, a phenomenon which tends to make winning teams' rush stats look relatively poor and losing teams' rushing defense looking correspondingly good, since both sides know what's coming.

The advantage yards-per-pass-play has over yards-per-rush-play isn't quite as pronounced as it is during the regular season, but it's still enormous.

Defensive stats simply aren't as explanatory as offensive stats are. Rush yards per game is often an artifice of the occurrence mentioned above--teams that give up a lot of yards on the ground tend to lose because winning teams tend to run a lot towards the end of the game against teams they're beating, even though said losing teams aren't necessarily any less efficient at stopping the run than winning teams are, as the weak relationship between winning and yards given up per rush play illustrates.

Opposing passer rating and yards per pass play, along with 3rd down conversion % allowed, are the only other major statistical indices considered that reach statistical significance, an expected converse of the success having an offense that is able to move the ball through the air brings.

I don't get no

++Addition++South Park's treatment (thanks to Dan).

---

... Posthumous respect? Nope, he's still not getting any. A mostly forgotten movie from two decades ago in which he starred presaged the next big 'civil rights' movement in the contemporary West, the crusade for sheilas to be treated as though there isn't a package between their legs. Or maybe to be as though a package has always been there, I forget. In any case, I'm of course referring to Rodney Dangerfield and Ladybugs. The relevant synopsis:

Chester is desperate for a promotion at work. To impress his boss, he claims to have been a good soccer player in his youth and is badgered into coaching a girls' team called the Ladybugs. Dragging his assistant along as assistant coach, Chester figures the gig to be easy as the Ladybugs, sponsored by his company, are a dynasty. Unfortunately, only one player has returned. The team, which includes the boss's daughter, Kimberly, are clueless, make a dreadful start to the season, and the boss is less than impressed. 

In his personal life, Chester is engaged to Bess, who has a son, Matthew, from a previous marriage. Matthew just happens to be a great athlete, but poor grades get him kicked off the soccer team. Chester invites Matthew to watch the Ladybugs practice and to get some tips. Matthew has a crush on Kimberly from school and it is partly due to this that Chester persuades him to dress like a girl and play for the team under the name Martha. 

With only Chester, Matthew and Julie knowing the secret of Martha's identity, the team wins the rest of its games to get to the championship game. Kimberly makes friends with Martha, not knowing "she" is in fact Matthew.

The closing scene in this corny movie from the early nineties demonstrates far more perspicacity in identifying where this strange road leads to than the entire NYT editorial board or our most preeminent legal mind does. As Chester prepares for the first game of the season in girls softball, we see a bus full of cross-dressed male recruits eager to alternately ogle and smash their hapless female opponents.

This is a PG-13 parody of gender bending. It potentially gets a lot more gratuitous. As a commenter at Steve's astutely pointed out:

This problem will be self-correcting. Jocks will start loudly proclaiming their female identity and demand to shower with the cheerleaders. Progressives will quietly throw the fight then.

He's probably being overly optimistic in that assessment, but if you thought traditional, middle American cultural sensibilities were burned and pillaged in same-sex marriage's march to the sea, just wait for what the tranzis sympathizers have in store.

That said, athletics are where we find the most auspicious ground upon which to join combat with the Cathedral's Amazonian termagant forces and their eunuch auxiliaries. HBD realists are always up for a tough fight in the court of public opinion, and the Cathedral doesn't deal lightly with heretics. But the post-Christian West has another religion whose powers of captivation are even stronger--sports. If there is an ideal field for us to join battle on, this is it. Mainstream writers--even ethnically Jewish ones!--like Jon Entine and David Epstein are able to discuss athleticism and HBD in almost unveiled terms because sports competitions are designed to pit athletes against one another on a level playing field, and, because, well, Americans love sports. It's about the only shared cultural experience left in the polyglot country we used to think of as united.

Consequently, they're own lying eyes tell them a lot--it's harder to blame structural/institutional/socio-economic/cultural isms for west African black dominance in speed positions that are especially reliant on fast twitch muscle fibers like cornerback than it is to explain away why the children of wealthy blacks perform worse on standardized tests than the children of poor whites do and how putative white racism is squared with apparent yellow favoritism.

Depicting reality or escaping from it?

I'm finally getting around to reading Steven Pinker's The Better Angels of Our Nature. The descriptions of how widespread and commonplace violence was in the 'popular culture' of the medieval and middle ages make for fun reading, but I wonder (because I don't know) how representative said popular culture was of the larger societies it existed in at the time.

I bring this up because that doesn't appear to be the case today--if anything, the inverse seems to be true. Agnostic has indefatigably documented a whole host of things, including this, in a long-running analyses of cultural differences between rising (and high) crime eras and declining (and low) crime eras. Check out comic books from the low crime mid-20th century, for example. Video games, a sort of contemporary successor to comic books, have become far more graphically violent and intentionally realistic in their depictions of said violence (having previously opted for stylized depictions of violence and a predilection for surreality) over the last few decades as actual rates of violent crime have steadily dropped.

As real life in the West has become increasingly more peaceful over the last twenty years, football has clearly surpassed baseball as America's pass time and MMA has left boxing behind. In many ways, as we've become less violent, our popular culture has become more so. Moving outside the US, the exceptionally pacifistic Japanese are into some extremely gruesome and disgusting stuff.

More generally, Quentin Tarantino is a successful director and producer, but if aliens were to try and surmise what life on earth is like for its human inhabitants by viewing Kill Bill and Django Unchained, their conceptions would be wildly off base. Western popular culture is way more violent than life in the Occident actually is.

Radiohead vs Dave Matthews Band

My brother is a junior in college, at the age when passion naturally flows into debates about which band is the greatest ever, speculations on eschatology, and the like. He's a connoisseur of contemporary music, and puts Radiohead at the top of the pile. I have been since adolescence and remain today a dmb votary, so when he baited me by asserting that Radiohead is the better band, I bit. I asked, "Who's going to be remembered a generation from now?"

His arguments for Radiohead: The songwriting is cohesive and credited to all five members (dmb's is mostly to the band's eponymous lead singer), band membership has been stable for three decades (dmb saxophonist Leroi Moore died in '08 and there have been both previous and subsequent member acquisitions and resignations), the band is album-focused and albums are what last through the years (roughly half of dmb's song library has never been recorded in studio), they show up on many contemporary lists of greatest active bands (dmb never does), they've pushed the envelope musically more than just about any other major act has over the last couple of decades, and they don't make anything of suboptimal quality (dmb has Stand Up).

Mine: The top grossing and ticket selling musical act of the 2000s. Beat Kenny Chesney, Bruce Springsteen, the Rolling Stones, Celine Dion, Madonna, Elton John, the Eagles, Jimmy Buffet, and anyone else you can think of (no Radiohead here--this is the majors, not the farm league). If that's not enough, they've had the most consecutive #1 Billboard album debuts in the chart's history, ahead of the likes of Metallica, Eminem, Madonna, and U2. They've got Radiohead on the diversity front--four black guys (including Rashawn Ross) and a native African beats a bunch of white guys from England. They've got them on musical diversity as well--mainstreaming the fiddle, horns, saxophones, and soul vocals isn't an easy task. Dmb's appeal is wider--women listen (they don't really to Radiohead) and the age range is wider. When it comes to improvisation, there's really no contest:



Another factor, however, that suggests posterity might favor Radiohead is that music critics adore them while having never embraced dmb (Jim DeRogatis' 1998 review in Rolling Stone magazine epitomizing this) for a host of speculative reasons: The band's diversity integrates in the wrong direction--it features black guys doing 'white' things (playing instruments but not singing) and draws overwhelmingly white crowds who are, contrary to uninterested conventional belief (that pegs them as hippies), primarily frat boy yuppie types who grew into accountants and financial advisers; Dave's voice is an acquired taste; the music isn't tight enough to fit the three-minute-ditty template and, at least from afar, the atmosphere feels too much like the one the Grateful Dead inhabited a generation before; and the focus is on making stuff that is euphonious rather than novel, experimental, or danceable.

Since I've lost all but those who happen to share my enjoyment of dmb, a suggestion for a group that rumor and speculation suggest might be on another precipice--bring to studio the golden stuff that has never found its way into the studio (loosely including RTT). How about this for a prospective album (produced by Lillywhite, without negotiability)?

Granny (opening lines are perfect to open an album)
Crazy-Easy
Idea of You
Break Free
JTR
Sweet Up and Down
Sugar Will
Kind Intentions
#40 (the first nine being something of a story of the initial meetup that turned into a lifelong relationship) Spotlight
Toy Soldiers (these two because they're poetically great)
Blue Water Baboon Farm (fits the same mold as Bartender, Spoon, Proudest Monkey, and Drunken Soldier as album sendoffs)

The Office fogies

I'm into the fifth season of The Office. As a cog in the machine, its lampooning of the corporate world hits home and the hot-cold mix of blatant-subtle presentation really does it for me. My onomastic obsession has been activated since the beginning, though. The show is set in contemporary Scranton, PA but if one considers the characters' names in a vacuum, he'd be excused for guessing it debuted in 1987. Using BabyNamingWizard, an approximate expected age for each of the show's major characters based on when their given names peaked in popularity:

Age 128

Age 33 (plausible)

Age 41 (plausible)

Age unknown (...)

Age 49

Age 53

Age 61

Age 42 (nailed it)

Age 52

Age 71

Age 40

Age 52

Age 29 (overcompensation!)

Age 49 (plausible)

Age 51

Age 78

Age 119

Age 30 (nailed it)

Age 101

Age 59

Age 43 (nailed it)

Prior to this, I haven't watched a sitcom since The Simpsons, so maybe the giving of established (that is, old ones that everyone is familiar with) names is standard practice because it makes them easier for viewers to remember?

Dragon Quest VIII quotes and quotations

For most who don't come upon this via search engine, this post should be skipped.

One of the more enjoyable entertainment experiences I've had over the last decade or so was a playing through of the PlayStation II SquareEnix game, Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King, as my reflections on the game clearly attest. A lot of nostalgia there, and as longtime readers will have noticed, I have a neotenous streak. At some point after doing so it came to my attention that, inexplicably, there was no cache of quotes from the title to be found anywhere on the internet.

Sounds like as good an excuse as any for playing through again, and over the last several months, I did just that. Below are the fruits of this true labor of love. The inclusions are of course arbitrary and non-exhaustive. They're presented in roughly the order they are uttered throughout the narrative's progression. A heavy dose comes from intra-party chatting. And yes, Angelo is my favorite character, so consequently, to Yangus' insatiable chagrin, the game's resident Adonis gets the largest helping.

Yangus

"Findin' people is my 'piece de resistance', as they say!"

"Awright, so there might be a few more monsters, but a real man don't need to worry about that!"

"I can't stand bein' all wet like this. Feels like I've 'ad an accident or somefin'!" (in the Waterfall Cave)

"I'm no good when it comes to sob stories like that. I'll need a good ol' bawl to get it out of me system when I get a bit o' time on me own later." (upon hearing of Allistair's fate)

"COR BLIMEY!"

"[Jessica's] a bit wild, that one. More trouble than she's worth, if you ask me."

"The story of 'ow me an' the guv fell in together is an epic tale, full o' laughter, thrills, and tears..."

"I shoulda known a bird wouldn't get a story like ours, guv."

"Do we really 'ave to let that Jessica along? You know what birds are like. Always moanin' about bein' tired and their feet achin'. They're a right pain! To be 'onest, I'd much rather it just be us three blokes, but there you go."

"Churches are good for 'avin a snooze, an' pubs are good for 'avin some booze!"

"If I don't stop off at a water' 'ole after I've been climbin', me legs seize up. Nah! I'm only a giraffe! Y'know, a laugh! I just fancied goin' to the pub is all."

"It 'ardly needs sayin', but I'd want you there too, guv! Standin' next to the stove, maybe!" (on living in a quaint house)

"I can't think no more! It does me 'ead in!"

"The bloke's a serious nutter! But 'is days are numbered! He's got me narked now!" (about Dhoulmagus)

"I can smell blood in the air. You an' Jessica ain't got much experience o' this kinda thing, guv. Leave it to me if things get ugly, awright?"

"Awright! Sweet! Nice! Diamond! ... I'm right fired up now, guv! Ready for action!"

"It's all part of a man's sense of adventure, eh? Believin' in stupid fairy tales and tryin' to prove they're true!"

"Just stick behind me if any ugly-lookin' monsters show their faces. They won't get past ol' Yangus!"

"We forgot to bring any grub wiv us! No point sittin' down if we ain't got nuffin' to eat!"

"The outside o' me might 'ave got a bit bulkier, but the old grey stuff's still as small as ever. So... I ain't got a clue about nuffin'." (on how to go about charging the Mirror of Ra, if memory serves)

"I ain't exactly a looker meself. I know what it's like to be discriminated against."

"People round 'ere don't care where ya come FROM, they care about wot ya come WIV!" (on Medea being horsenapped in Pickham)

"Travellin' round wiv you certainly broadens me, mind, guv. It's diamond!"

"Love a duck! Stone the crows! Blimey O'Riley! What the 'ell happened back there!?" (on the legendary ship rising to the sea)

"It's action we need, not speeches!"

"There's somefin' about bein' in a church that makes me feel all uncomfy, like. I can't help but feel the Goddess is judgin' me."

"We ain't gonna let [grandad an' the 'orse princess] down. We're men, awright, not mice! Er, no offence, Munchie."

"Hang on, grandad! You still look like a freak!" (upon slaying Dhoulmagus)

"I ain't ever seen snow before. I'm pretty excited, actually. Woo-hooooo!"

"Diamond! First Ascantha an' now this! We're on a banquet roll!" (when Cash and Carrie hold a banquet in Baccarat)

"Casino tokens! For nuffin'! Time to 'it the tables!"

"Why does she 'ave to make me feel like a loser even though I won?" (about Red being a sore loser)

"All I wanna know is where the 'strong curry-luncheon' is!" (upon not comprehending the word "correlation")

"Grandad always looks sour. Ya never know wot 'e's thinkin'."

"Them big icy-colds wot keep droppin' outta nowhere really give me the willies! Wot if one of 'em fell on me 'ead!? I'd get skewered, that's wot! An' then all me brains'd go to waste!"

"That's wot I call a proper doctor, always puttin' 'is patients first. Even when they're no good drunks!"

"I've always loved bein' in 'igh places ever since I was a kid. I feel like I was made for 'em! Normally, when I tell people that, they give me this funny look... and mutter somefin' about it not being very likely that I'll ever be a man in a 'igh place. Beats me, why, though."

"Them Templars look like a nasty bunch awright, but that prob'ly makes 'em good guards."

"I ain't keen on Marcello, but I can't say I go for them bigwigs preachin' at me, neither!" (on High Priest Rolo demeaning Marcello's humble origins)

"I reckon you should live in a big posh mansion like this one day, guv. You deserve to 'ave somewhere nice."

"You're a good bloke, Rolo!" (on the High Priest sacrificing himself to help the party get out of the Purgatory Island dungeon)

"No one puts the guv'ner behind bars! NO ONE! That Marcello's 'istory!"

"Against you 'n' me guv, 'ell be a pushover! Just like all the rest."

"That's the Chancellor of Argonia they've got there! Think o' the reward we'd get if we saved 'im! ... Or am I jumpin' the gun?"

"This is the first time I've ever wished I was carryin' a bit less excess baggage! If we get out of 'ere, I'm goin' on a diet!"

"Mind you, I reckon I could give [Morrie] a run for 'is money when it comes to a monstrous pit! Hah hah!"

"Wherever I travel, Pickham's still me 'ome!"

"I wouldn't mind praying everyday if that's 'ow me prayers was answered."

"Looks like there are some pretty fierce monsters in 'ere. Tends to be the way wiv places that're 'ard to find."

"Maybe the person buried 'ere is a bit unpopular, eh? Maybe 'e weren't too good at the ol' personal 'ygiene." (on seeing the Hero's father's grave on the way to the home of the Dragovians)

"Not that I'm complainin', mind. That was good grub! I'm just feeling a bit cozy round the old midriff."

Jessica

"We have to hurry! I can't let anyone else die at [Dhoulmagus'] hands!"

"I've never met a king before... Except king Trode, of course. But for some reason, it just isn't the same. I suppose it's his looks!"

"Does this dress suit me? ... You don't think it's too... revealing, do you? Mother called this kind of outfit vulgar!"

"They're nothing alike... Apart from the way they annoy me every time they open their mouths. In that respect they're identical twins." (on Angelo and Marcello)

"Bring your services anywhere near my front and I'll cut them off, you floppy-haired choirboy!" (to Angelo's initial approach)

"[Mother's] obsessed with smuggling me into polite society whether I like it or not."

"Nice try, Angelo."

"I wonder what Dhoulmagus is like. I mean, I know he's a bad guy, but what's he LIKE?"

"Strong but sensitive... gorgeous but modest... riding about on a white horse? But him? HIM?! Don't even get me started!" (on Charmles as a prince)

"I can't stand monsters with lots of eyes. Or slimy, gooey ones. I can't even stand looking at them."

"It isn't an easy thing, coming face-to-face with the man who killed your brother."

"I suspect my intense hatred of Dhoulmagus made it easier for Rhapthorne to take control of me. Negativity is his bread and butter. I think he uses it as a conduit to possess anyone who touches the scepter."

"It's hard to motivate yourself to go into the freezing cold. I should have put on more layers!"

"[Munchie's] cute, smart AND he saves us when we'er in trouble! He's my hero!"

"Love and hate are opposite sides of the same coin."

"I know these tokens are our reward, but I just can't get excited over them. By the time we use them up, we're probably going to be hopelessly addicted to gambling. Before you know it, we'll be shelling out for our own tokens! They'll be the ones turning a profit from us."

"Nice, Angelo. Really nice. How cool and detached you are... just like your brother!"

"The actual owner of the treasure appeared right before our eyes! Does this mean we'll be guilty of robbery if we fight him and take it?" (on Cap'n Crow)

(When an enemy attempts to use Puff puff on Jessica: "But Jessica laughs triumphantly, having won the battle of the bulges!")

"Talk about having friends in high places. He's the son of a Godbird."

"What DOES happen to people who don't behave properly in front of the Lord High Priest? The death penalty? Squashed by the Goddess' giant thumb?"

"Now that they know their sacred Goddess statue was really the Lord of Darkness' tomb all this time, what are people going to believe in?"

"It's a little weird that we haven't seen a single maid in this huge mansion." (in the Chancellor of Argonia's mansion after its inhabitants are captured by trolls)

"This isn't about me anymore... We have to win. Not just for Allistair, but for all of Rhapthorne's victims. And for every living thing in the world of light."

"I want to live as happy a life as I can. I think of it as a way to honor those people whose lives were cut short."

"I only made it this far because I followed my heart."

"Princess Medea is being a bit obstinate, isn't she? I mean, who cares about some dusty old promise? She should just refuse if she doesn't want to get married."

"There's no way [Munchie's] a normal mouse! I can't believe it didn't strike me as odd before!" 

"Can we really do it? Actually, that's not even a question. We HAVE to do it!"

Angelo

"If I were to throw you in there, your whole body would be skewered. I could make you holier-than-thou without so much as getting my hands dirty." (regarding the iron maiden at Maella Abbey)

"It's as if all the demons of hell had gathered to feast on ... ABBOT FRANCISCO!"

"So, Jessica. From now on, I'll protect you. I won't leave your side. Consider me your personal bodyguard."

"I was so young and innocent then. The whole thing hurt more than you can imagine. Still, c'est la vie..."

"Mourning dress does have some redeeming features. I spy some strikingly pretty faces amidst the drab tones. Perhaps I might be able to cheer one or two of them up."

"A queen so fair, the king hasn't been able to forget her in more than two years? Hmm... I'd like a chance to meet this Ascanthan rose, dead or not."

"You'll understand one day, when you've experienced true love for yourself... Perhaps I could offer my services on that front?"

"I bet they were head over heels in love when they got married. And then she died before they had time to get sick of each other. It's the perfect love story."

"All this death and killing is getting rather tedious."

"My tongue may be smooth and silver, but so is the moon, and it, I concede, is better to look at."

"So that sissy of a king has finally pulled himself together and started to behave like a real man again!"

"[Pickham] is filthy. Let's find this information dealer, Brains, or whatever he's called, and bid farewell to this stench as quickly as we can."

"Jessica, you might have won a good pair in the past, but you'll need more than that to beat my casino hand!"

"I just had this image of Yangus dressed up as a woman! Merciful Goddess! Purge this frightful vision from my tortured mind!"

"I enjoy a conquest as much as the next man, but breaking down the doors of that particular citadel would require more than an attractive horse!" (about Red, innuendo anyone?)

"How about a bit of company during the night, then, if you're so scared? I'll look after you. Keep you nice and warm." (to Jessica)

"The ceiling nearly did irreparable damage to my immaculate features."

"Yangus' testimony!? And which court of law does THAT stand up in?"

"We'll be in trouble too if we don't silence that talentless mole and his truly awful cacophony, pronto!"

"Now we've got ourselves about, why don't we take a bit of a detour? We've only seen half of the world. There's still so much left to enjoy."

"Any grown man who needs to be watched over by an older woman is obviously still tied to his mother's apron strings."

"You can't get any more tight-fisted than a royal."

"Look at me now, babysitting a prince who can't even wipe his own backside." (regarding Charmles)

"What is it with old kingdoms like this? Why do they insist on hanging onto ridiculous traditions like this initiation? Still, at least it isn't anything barbaric, like human sacrifice or something. That said, putting the prince in the ring with anything more dangerous than the common cold seems akin to sacrifice."

"It's [Marcello] who hates me. I don't have any feelings for him at all... None whatsoever."

"By the Goddess! Look behind you! Oh, no! WATCH OUT! Ha ha! Made you look! Anyway, didn't the shock loosen you up a bit? Help you relax?"

"As a knight, I am honor bound not to strike down an opponent who will not defend himself."

"OLD?! Speak for yourself! You're looking at the Goddess's gift to woman kind! Her YOUNG gift to YOUNG woman kind!"

"The perfect excuse for a bit of debauchery, ruined thanks to Jessica. And I was hoping to enjoy it with her!"

"Jewels are like women. The harder they are to get, the more satisfactiion they bring in the end. Half the fun is in the chase, my friend."

"Are you really the reformed crook you'd have us all believe you are, Yangus!? You seem far too good-natured to me. Or did you steal that heart of gold!?"

"As soon as people start getting too big for their boots, any sense of decency they might once have had starts to fester and decay."

"I guess you could say that King Trode's carelessness led to Jessica being possessed by Rhapthorne."

"What a dog! He's a lot more use than a certain king don't you think? And he smells better, too!" (regarding Marta's St. Bernard, Boris)

"All the women here wear far too many layers. Still, I suppose taking them off one by one has its charms, too."

"We have such tragically bad fortune ourselves that I'm sure his mildly unlucky contribution wouldn't make much difference."

"She's hardly a damsel in distress. More like a wrinkled damson in a frumpy dress!"

"A dog controlling a pack of wolves!? Trust Rhapthorne to have ideas above his station."

"As brothers go, Cash is a hundred times better than Marcello."

"Now we can finally wash our hands of this affair. Just as soon as we've collected our compensation, of course!"

"I'll double those tokens. No, I'll even triple them. You know about my poker prowess, don't you?"

"Now we can bet the shirt off Jessica's back on some thrillingly high risk fun!" (at the Baccarat casino)

"We're looking for a dog. Red's more of a fox in my opinion. So why are we here?"

"That woman's intuition is formidable. She'd find out about my other lady-friends before I even learned their names!"

"It all sounds a bit far-fetched to me. Superstitious, at best. But superfluous gibberish would probably be closer to the truth."

"So we climb all this way and finally reach the top, only to be greeted by a monster ugly enough to turn milk sour. I fail to see the appeal of mountaineering."

"All the time back at the abbey, people said [the Lord High Priest] lived above the clouds... now I realize they meant up here, not 'up there'!"

"I really thought Empyrea would lose it when she found out her egg had been crushed. But she was so calm. She just rose above it all. That's exactly the kind of level-headedness you need for poker."

"I don't know if you're a devout believer or just a coward! Either way, praying will get you nowhere, I can assure you."

"There are pheromones in the air. It's unmistakable."

"It's like some kind of sick joke. He's been taken over by the Lord Darkness and now he's going to become head of the Church!"

"Two-to-one. Those are the odds. We got Jessica back, but I'm not going to hold back... but what if he dies?"

"You will go on living, knowing that the brother you despised your whole life took pity on you." (upon saving Marcello in the desert)

"We're on the threshold of a truly epic battle. One or more of us may not be coming back."

"It sounds like our favorite criminal romance remains at the frustrating status of 'just good friends'."

"The chancellor's about to become intimately acquainted with the inner workings of a troll's digestive system!"

"Dear Goddess! I'm being preached at by YANGUS!"

"There's no point in puzzling over which way to go. As long as there's a path in front of you, take it!"

"I suppose it wouldn't hurt to say a little prayer, just for a laugh."

"Maybe I should start the ball rolling and get acquainted with a nice Dragovian girl... Angelo, the Ambassador or Love, at your service! This is how we humans do things down below..."

"There's not enough room for TWO dashing cavaliers around here! Me and this Lord of the Dragovians have got a score to settle now!"

"If there's one thing I hate in life, it's a trial. What kind of masochistic lunatic would come all the way up here to endure a grueling, not to mention tedious, challenge!? ... Oh no! You would, wouldn't you!?"

"You still have the ring, the ring that belonged to your father. Go and show it to King Clavius!"

"Now we've defeated the Lord of the Dragovians, he and I can get down to the important business of determining which of us is the most debonair."

"If you were as enthusiastic about defeating Rhapthorne as you are about the land of the Dragovians, the world would be saved in a flash!"

"This is a bit extreme even for one of your detours, Hero. It almost makes me feel respect for you, rather than my usual irritation. Almost."

"I had hoped these Dragovians would be quite special. It was something about their name. But they're a sorry bunch, really."

"I'm not Hero! Notice my dashing good looks? The glint in my eye? My tendency to smolder captivatingly? I think your eyesight must be going, old girl."

"Are you really going to let this happen? If you ask me, it's your duty as chief of the palace guard to protect the Princess's happiness."

"Sounds like Chen Mui was quite an important chap here, doesn't it? He and King Trode really go to show how you can't judge a book by its cover."

"I'm normally not this agreeable. Maybe I've been around you too long, Hero!?"

"Fools rush in where angels fear to tread."

Said the Meat Head Angelo swindled in Simpleton's bar, "I'm gonna introduce that stuck-up little squirt to the business end o' my knife. Then he'll know what it's like to be a real holey man!"

Trode

"A low life like you wouldn't recognize nobility if it came up and bit you on the... arrrgh!" (to Yangus)

"A strange creature!? Are you referring to me?"

"You ignorant imbecile! Don't you realize when my subjects,suffer, I suffer!?"

"Dhoulmagus, you spineless clown! To attack one's own master is an unforgivable offence!"

"You loathsome lowlife! You of all people have no right to call me 'weird'!" (to Yangus)

"That diabolical Dhoulmagus! He's a cold-blooded killer! A soulless savage! A vile villain of the highest order!"

"Premission!? PERMISSION!? YOUR bridge lies within my kingdom, you oaf!"

"I see your mouth is as vulgar as your face!" (to Yangus)

"Just leave him! It's poetic justice! Nay, divine justice!"

"Guv? What is this nonsense!? Are you a complete imbecile? This boy is my retainer!"

"It wouldn't do to stir up the natives again with my extraordinary appearance." (at Peregin Quay)

"If only I didn't look like this, I wouldn't have to rely on you. No doubt I'd get some answers if people knew I was king! Still, it can't be helped that my retainers find the simplest tasks impossible."

"Unhand me at once, you insolent ruffian!" (to Marcello at Maella Abbey)

"What imprudence! You're even more uncouth than that oaf Yangus! Being in your sorry company makes me look all the more dignified!" (to Angelo)

"What!? You sold my daughter!? That's it! Hero! Slay this worthless wastrel!" (to Pickham thief)

"I don't care if it's the Venus' tear or the contents of the Trodain royal vault! My precious Medea is worth a million of either, and more besides!"

"Pay Her off! From your own pocket!"

"We're deeply indebted to Marta. But with my overwhelming charm, it's not surprising she wanted to help us!"

"YOU BLINKERED IDIOT! You'd swap my Princess for those bedraggled mares!?"

"Do not worry, Empyrea. These people serve me, and I order them to rescue your egg!"

"You can scour the world, but you won't find another king who has the Godbird Empyrea as one of his retainers!"

"Through the sagacious and prudent guidance of your wise king, you have acquired the ability to fly."

"You could see off a whole division of cavalry! With your might, invading Ascantha would be simplicity itself! ... Ahem! Merely an example, of course..."

"Receiving help, by which I mean commanding others to provide necessary assistance, forms the basis of my entire philosophy on life."

"I saw you all in action! My wonderful men! You were magnificent!"

"My country's honor matters not one jot compared to [Medea's] happiness."

"[Ishmari] lives in my castle, so he's my subject. It's as simple as that."

"Quite frankly, it would be no bad thing if this entire area were razed to the ground. Including Pickham. It can go to the dogs for all I came. The dogs would be a step up from the rats who run the place now."

Medea

"If it's a choice between marrying that twit and being a horse, you can make mine a grass sandwich!"

High Priest Rolo

"You may be Captain of the Templars, but a man of such humble origins as yourself has no place here!" (to Marcello at Savella Cathedral)

"So that confounded Marcello thinks he's too good to pay his bribes now that he's master of the guard to the Lord High Priest!"

"I'm innocent! You should arrest that miscreant!"

"Curse Marcello! That traitor will rot in hell!"

"For the first time in my life, I pray to you from my heart! I beg for your mercy!"

Marcello

"My guard is watertight. I make sure of that. There's no way for an outsider to get into the abbey."

"Come dawn tomorrow, I will have you tortured. Perhaps then you will realize the gravity of the sins you have committed."

"The luxury of a carefree existence such as yours is not something I can afford." (to Angelo)

"Exile High Priest Rolo to Purgatory Island along with these thugs! They will learn that succession comes at a high price!"

"I'm notoriously bad at taking orders." (after squelching Rhapthorne's attempt to control him with the scepter)

"A king is but a man born into the right family!"

"The Lord High Priest, our kings, our Goddess! All of them reign over us from their exalted thrones! Each one as useless as the next!"

Abbet Francisco

"I have given myself to the Goddess! If it is Her wish, I am prepared to die."

Red

"Stop gov'llin' about on the floor! Be a man!" (in response to Yangus' pleading for Medea to be returned)

Don Mole

"T-take it to the bridge...! Things done... got too far... gone..."

Charmles

"Y-you brazen plebeian! How dare you mock ROYALTY!? Apologize this instant!" (to Angelo)

"Normally I wouldn't let such base sarcasm go unpunished!"

"One look at your is enough to make me forget all the other beautiful girls I've ever met! I'm the luckiest man in the world to have you as my wife."

"I can't possibly have commoners like you at such a grand royal affair. It's not as if you're aristocracy or wealthy, or, well, anything. Hahaha!"

"How could you be so remiss to let a ragged rabble like them to rout you!? You rotten rascals!" (to downed Templar guards)

Blazeghost (in Dark Ruins)

"The infidels have broken through the dark aura! They must be preparing to attack us..."

Empyrea

"You humans never fail to surprise me."

"In another world I was known as... Ramia."

Dhoulmagus

"What faith you have! Let's put it to the test, shall we?"

"Why if it isn't King 'Troll' and Princess 'Mare-dea'."

"The mare I can see, but you look more like a toad than a troll to me." (upon cursing Trode and Medea)

Rhapthorne

"You shall taste the terror eternal. Even death shall offer you no respite."

Dominico

"Get off of me, you disgusting piece of filth! This isn't a chance for you to steal your way into my good books!" (to David)

"I don't know why, but just looking at David's face makes my blood boil."

Dragovian Elder

"You taught us the folly of isolating ourselves simply for the purpose of avoiding sadness and pain."

Lord of the Dragovians

"Had you not confronted me, it would've meant the end of the Dragovian race."

Chen Mui

"Every one of the Dragovians objected, but [Hero's mother] decided to keep the baby." (between this and the death of Empyrea's 'unborn child' at the hands of the demon Gemon who crushed her egg, one might detect a pro-life message in the game's narrative)

Morrie

"You bring a breath of fresh air to my monstrous pit!"

"You give my monstrous pit a good licking, ay!"

"The tension is really mounting in the pit, ay!"

Ragnar

"When someone comes along who can beat my Healie's Heelies, I know the times have changed. But there's no satisfaction if the fight's too easy, is there? Yes, I remember what it was like in the old days..."

White guys are the worst

A fun article that appeared on the classy site Jezebel (I'm not a regular reader--Tony Horton brought the piece to my attention) does a pretty good job (for an anecdote, anyway) of illustrating the demographic hipness hierarchy that exists in contemporary America. Ben Mandelker, apparently a pretty typical SWPL guy, who is a few months into the P90X workout program, ranks, countdown style, the supporting cast. Like other lists that ostensibly have nothing to do with ethnic, racial, or sexual characteristics, this one allows us to make observations about demographic characteristics that the person or people creating the list probably didn't have in mind when constructing it, at least not consciously.

I've reproduced his rankings in the proceeding table, but replaced names and editorializing with racial and sexual characteristics, as well as a few relevant parenthetical notes. I've inverted from worst-to-best to best-to-worst for ease of viewing:

From best ...

1. Black woman

2. Black man

3. White man* (!)

4. White man (physically handicapped)

5. White woman (bisexual... actually, "omnisexual")

6. White woman (foreign-born)

7. White woman (old)

8. Black man

9. White man

10. Hispanic woman

11. Asian man

12. White man

13. White man

14. White woman

15. White woman

16. White man (foreign-born)

17. White man

18. White woman

19. White man

20. White man

21. White man

22. White woman

23. White man

... to worst

We know having black friends is hip, even if those friends were immersed in middle class values growing up and they end up living in mostly white neighborhoods (the three black characters' names are Pam, Adam, and Tony, not L'akisha, D'Brickshaw, and Terrance). The lowest ranking non-white is the Asian guy (the West's softest minority target) and he still comes in among the top half. Sexual deviancy and disability provide whites with some limited means for advancement.

In summation, the only black woman takes the gold. The two black guys average a 5 slot. The sole Hispanic gets a 10 slot and the only Asian an 11 slot (a spot also occupied by foreign-born whites). For white women, the mean is the 12 slot, and for white men it's the 14 slot.

Wait, am I describing a specific data set or the modern zeitgeist? Right, I could be doing either thing, hence the illustrative value of Mandelker's article.

* Daniel, who is clearly one cool cat, is my favorite member of the supporting cast, followed closely by Adam (#2) because of how hard he pushes me and Timmy (#20) because he reminds me most of myself.

Real life imitates Springfield

Ray Sawhill of 2Blowhards fame points out one man's lonely quest to fight Big Food on behalf of "consumers":

One angry (and hungry) man is picketing a family-run restaurant for what he calls false advertising. Bill Wisth, who weight 350lbs and stands at a towering 6ft6in, went to the Thiensville, Wisconsin restaurant last Friday for their all-you-can-eat fish fry. However, he said that after 12 pieces, Chuck’s Place cut him off. 

The restaurant staff said they were running out of fish, but sent Mr. Wisth on his way with eight more pieces.

...

Mr. Wisth called the police. He told TMJ 4 that people ‘have to stand up for consumers.’ Two days later, Mr. Wisth returned to Chuck’s Place, but this time he also brought a picket sign which read: ‘False advertising.’

From season four, episode eight, "New Kid on the Block":

Lionel Hutz: Now, Mrs. Simpson, tell the court in your own words what happened after you and your husband were ejected out of the restaurant.

Marge: [eyes downcast] Well, we pretty much went straight home.

Lionel Hutz: Mrs. Simpson, remember that you are under oath.

Marge: We drove around until three in the morning looking for another open all-you-can-eat seafood restaurant.

Lionel Hutz: And when you couldn't find one?

Marge: [crying] We... went... fishing.

Lionel Hutz: Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, do these sound like the actions of a man whose had ALL he could eat? [the jury is made up of obese people]

Jury: No, no.

Jury Man: No, that could've been me.

Not quite Tom Wolfe-caliber presaging, but still pretty damned good.

Ranking Seinfield seasons

At the prompting of some of Steve Sailer's commenters, I've calculated average season ratings for Seinfield by recording IMBD user ratings for each of the show's 172 episodes:

Season	Rating
4	8.52
8	8.50
7	8.47
5	8.42
9	8.38
6	8.35
3	8.30
2	8.09
1	7.68

I've never seen a full episode of the show, so I'm commenting out of ignorance here, but the conventional opinion seems to be that the show went out on top, just as the eponymous creator intended it to in declining a $110 million from NBC to produce a tenth season. It's difficult to say definitively based on viewer ratings whether the show had peaked in the fourth season and had been churning water for a few years with an impending dip in the near future or if it could have maintained the same quality for several more seasons. It's said by some that Larry David's departure at the end of the seventh season marked a change in the show for the worse, but that's not detectable here.

Whatever the case may be, if I were a fan, I doubt I would've been too happy about the desire to nobly call it quits at the zenith. A good portion of the ride down from that high point to the nadir some number of years in the future is still going to be thrilling, and I won't cherish my favorite episode in season six less because season fifteen sucks so much. As Ed succinctly put it:

People keep confusing "past its peak" with "bad". There are usually separate moments when a series begins its downhill slide, and when it actually becomes bad.

I suppose if I was more SWPL and actually cared about how shows I enjoy influence my pop culture status, though, I guess I'd have to be grateful for Jerry's decision.

Ranking The Simpsons seasons

++Addition++Steve expounds and adds a nice visual.

---

Those who've read this blog for awhile are probably aware of my affinity for The Simpsons. Like so many other fans of the show, I stopped making much of an effort to catch episodes from later seasons in the series. Well into the 2000s with family or friends who wanted to take one in, it would almost invariably be from the early- or mid-nineties, when the show was more a comedy on the follies of contemporary middle class suburbanites and less one offering political and cultural commentary on current events with silly single scene antics.

When I talk to other votaries about the series, sentiments approximating my own seem to be the rule, but The Simpsons is in its 23rd season now and continues to maintain impressive ratings, so there are plenty of people who find it worthwhile. I stopped watching TV when I graduated from a high school a decade ago (I don't even own one!), but if I still did, I'd probably be viewing new episodes each week with lower expectations than I had in the past.

The number of total viewers aside, I'm comfortable asserting that the show's golden age stretched from the early nineties into the latter part of that decade. Going through the tedious process of recording IMDB user ratings (the largest sample size I could find) for all 503 episodes up to Them, Robot (which is pretty entertaining, especially for those interested in speculations about the future of artificial intelligence and how humans will interact with it) and using these to compile full season averages on a 10 point scale, the following table ranks them from best to worst. The impetus for doing as much was my brother's opinion that seasons 3-9 were when the show was at its best, with the qualifier that nine is when the descent is first detectable and that he could refine that to seasons 3-8. He's a perspicacious kid:

Season	Rating
6	8.34
5	8.33
7	8.31
4	8.26
8	8.19
3	8.17
2	8.02
9	7.91
1	7.82
10	7.63
12	7.41
11	7.38
23	7.19
16	7.13
18	7.10
13	7.07
19	7.00
15	6.99
20	6.95
14	6.94
17	6.93
22	6.93
21	6.92

My personal favorites are Lisa the Vegetarian ("You don't win friends with salad, you don't win friends with salad!"), They Saved Lisa's Brain ("Inspired by the most logical race in the galaxy, the Vulcans, breeding will be permitted once every seven years. For many of you this will mean much less breeding. For me, much much more."), and The Springfield Files ("Who thought a whale could be so heavy?") from seasons 7, 10, and 8, respectively. Who cares, though, about that? The show's top eight, with the season in parentheses (there's a six-way tie for the ninth spot):

1. Who Shot Mr. Burns?, Part 1 (6) and You Only Move Twice (8)
3. Homer's Enemy (8)

4. Marge vs. The Monorail (4), Deep Space Homer (5), Treehouse of Horror V (6), Who Shot Mr. Burns?, Part II (7), and The Springfield Files (8)

I never win. I just know I will this time, though. I'm due!

Tonight, a multi-state lottery game with a jackpot payout of $640 million took in $1.5 billion, most of it flowing into state coffers (retail cuts are generally 5% on the sale and nothing on the payout, except the big winner). I'm being genuine when I say I'm surprised by how much I've heard people talking about it in public over the last week, rationalizing their ticket purchases with obnoxious cliches like "can't win if you don't play". But their taxes are too high, of course!

The libertarian in me says it's a voluntary tax, and a regressive one at that, so let it be. Allow people to impoverish themselves if they want to do. People do irrational things all the time--we're hardly a rational species. In a partially socialized society like we have in the US, however, there are externalities that others who have no part in the explicit cost end up having to pay.

For God's sake, AE, it's just a lottery! People drop $10 to in exchange for the ability to fantasize about being rich for a few hours before probability hits them upside the head. That's a reasonable amount of utility for the cost. What's the big deal? Is it any worse than going to see a movie or ordering a couple of beers?

No, it's not that big of a deal. But I see the mentality surrounding it, emblematic of the contemporary West though it may be, as poisonous--being rewarded for doing nothing worthy of reward, idly dreaming about abundant material wealth while squandering a bit of the meager pile one has managed to scrape together, the errant belief that one's odds are better than everyone else's are, etc. What a lazy, flabby, impulsive people we are!

Anyway, two of my favorite lottery aphorisms:

- Lottery is the ignorance tax--the dumber you are, the more you pay. (First heard from my high school AP English teacher, though I've seen it attributed to Adam Smith among others)

- Lottery: The process of taking money from a bunch of poor people and giving it to one formerly poor person. (John Stewart and co.)

Parenthetically, if lottery ticket purchases are part of your routine and that helps you get through your days, more power to you. Yeah, the unexamined life isn't worth living, but if I'm not careful, I might find that finger pointing right back at me!

Super Bowl and conference championship point differentials over time

Following this year's superb* Super Bowl, Steve Sailer wondered if the big game keeps getting better. He writes:

My impression is that Super Bowls are seldom the stinkers they used to be so regularly.

To try and quantify this, I looked at point differentials for every Super Bowl and averaged them by decade in an attempt to get some sense of how accurate that impression is:

Decade	PtDif
'60s	17.3
'70s	11.6
'80s	21.9
'90s	14.2
'00s	9.8

I was introduced to football as a second-grader living in Coppell, a Dallas suburb, the year the Cowboys put an exclamation mark on the NFC East's domination of the Bills. The eighties, though, is the decade when some of the most lopsided games in the league's history occurred. Just take a look at Super Bowls 18-24. Only the Montana-Esiason matchup was 'worth' watching.

Yet as Steve points out, there are ineptly played games where the final score nonetheless ends up being close, as the seventh Super Bowl illustrated. Defensive ineptness isn't something spectators tend to get too upset over, as long as it isn't limited exclusively to one side. For a general audience, the higher scoring, the better. The average combined total score in Super Bowls by decade:

Decade	AvgPts
'60s	36.3
'70s	37.0
'80s	49.7
'90s	53.4
'00s	46.1

Super Bowl 46 comes in on the low-end of scoring by the standards of the last few decades, adding to the perception that it was a boring game. This seemingly permanent shift towards higher scoring that has been firmly in place for the last few decades is probably the biggest reason games today feel better than they did when Steve was a kid. Something around 34-31 is probably ideal in terms of maximizing viewer satisfaction.

Steve also recalls observing when he was younger that:

Conference championship games were often thrilling, but Super Bowls were typically a waste of time.

Using the same simple point differential method employed previously, the following table additionally includes the average point differential for conference championship games by decade from the time of the NFL-AFL merger to the present:

Decade	SB Dif	Conf Dif
'70s	11.6	14.5
'80s	21.9	14.0
'90s	14.2	13.2
'00s	9.8	11.7

My historical impression is that conference championship games have been a lot better since I started following the league than they were when before then, but maybe that's skewed by the fact that shutouts didn't used to be the rarity that they are today. As late as the mid-eighties, the NFC championship game featured three consecutive shutouts in a row, as the Bears (who proceeded the following year to shutout LA), Rams, and Redskins were each held to zero. It's only happened once since in either conference since then, when the Giants drubbed the Vikings during the '00-'01 post-season.

* A commonly held perception of the game is that while it was unarguably competitive, it was boring. The Super Bowl draws twice the number of viewers that each conference championship does, and they're of course more watched than any of the other contests throughout the season are. So it's probably not much of a stretch to say that the majority of Super Bowl viewers aren't really fans of the league. For many of them, it's the only NFL game they'll watch all year.

I understand that perspective (though it's not one I share). From it, huge gains, momentous errors, and lots of lead changes are exciting highlights (along with the commercials, which have become a great selling point in getting people who have no interest in the sport to watch the game at parties) in an otherwise bland four hours of faceless men running into each other. The only especially memorable play was Mario Manningham's terrific catch (off a beautifully placed Manning pass) along the sideline just minutes after he'd given up a reception by losing track of the sideline. There was only one turnover, and it might as well have been a punt. Both offenses were efficient and both defenses played well, with the difference being a series of dropped balls by Patriots' receivers and Brady's bizarre intentional grounding that resulted in a safety on the first play from scrimmage for New England's offense.

2011 NFL regular season wins and stat correlations

With the conference championships teed up for next weekend, here are correlations between several stats and wins during the 2011 NFL regular season. This isn't a sports blog, and I'm not making any audacious claims about being able to provide special insights. Just the raw correlations for entire teams here, next to the same for last year for comparative purposes:

Offense	2011	2010	2009
Team passer rating	.79	.68	.81
Team points scored	.77	.71	.88
Yards gained per pass play	.72	.49	.80
Total yards gained	.63	.49	.77
1st downs	.61	.51	.70
Total yards gained per play	.60	.43	.81
Pass yards gained	.59	.30*	.68
Turnover ratio	.56	.72	.69
Time of possession	.55	.61	.46
3rd down conversion %	.53	.64	.64
QB hits allowed	(.40)	(.31)*	(.53)
Sacks allowed	(.29)*	(.26)*	(.53)
4th down conversion %	.26*	(.05)*	.25*
Rush attempts	.19*	.48	.12*
Pass attempts	.17*	(.06)*	.14*
Yards gained per rush play	(.10)*	(.05)*	(.09)*
Rush yards per game	(.07)*	.35	.04*
Total team penalty yards	.04*	(.08)*	.11*
Offensive penalty yards	(.03)*	(.11)*	.04*
Pass:Run ratio	(.01)*	(.31)	.02*
Special teams
Average net punt	.38	(.08)	.27*
Average yards gained per kick return	.38	.23*	.05*
Average kickoff distance	.26*	.08*	.32
Average kickoff return yards allowed	(.11)*	(.13)*	.15*
Field goal %	.07*	.08*	.03*
Defense
Rushing yards allowed per game	(.60)	(.56)	(.58)
Points allowed per game	(.58)	(.72)	(.68)
Opponent's passer rating	(.56)	(.54)	(.47)
Yards allowed per pass play	(.35)	(.49)	(.57)
4th down conversion % given up	(.33)	.03*	(.30)
Passing yards allowed per game	.28*	(.13)*	(.24)*
3rd down conversion % given up	(.18)*	(.13)*	(.23)*
Sacks made	.15*	.30	.41
Defensive penalty yards	.13*	(.01)*	.14*
1st downs given up per game	(.10)*	(.43)	(.45)
Total yards allowed	(.09)*	(.47)	(.56)
Yards allowed per play	(.09)*	(.32)	(.54)
Yards allowed per rush	(.05)*	(.16*)	(.33)

* not statistically significant at 90% confidence

Quarterbacks are king. Teams that move the ball through the air, win. Teams that can't, don't. The difference between having a play maker with a rifle for an arm like Jay Cutler and a dud like Caleb Hanie is starting off 7-3 and finishing 1-5. Need we even mention Peyton Manning?

The 2011 season felt to this fan more like 2009, which Steve Sailer deemed the year only passing mattered, than it did 2010. Indeed, the correlation with wins and the statistics presented above between the 2011 and 2009 seasons is .84, even more rigorous than the .76 correlation between 2011 and 2010.

OneSTDV, on why the NFL is the most popular sports league in the US:

The NFL is now the ultimate sports behemoth, perhaps as a result of helmets and pads covering up black superstars and whites still dominating the marquee positions of QB and head coach.

I'm unclear as to how strong the relationship between professional sports players' demographics and the popularity among the public of the sports they play is. The NHL and MLS are both a lot whiter than the NFL while remaining far less popular than that football behemoth is. Over the last few decades, the MLB has become increasingly non-black and yet has experienced a long-term decline in popularity not just among blacks but also among whites to such an extent that football, not baseball, now clearly deserves to be referred to as America's favorite pastime. But it's hard to argue that in football's most important position, whites are in fact overrepresented relative to racial composition of the country as a whole.

While assertions that "defenses win championships" inevitably abound during postseason play, the offensive correlations are considerably and consistently stronger*. That total rushing yards allowed--not yards per attempt, but total run yards given up--correlates more strongly with wins than any other defensive stat does says a lot about offensive predominance. When defenses give up a lot of rushing yards in a game, it's often because the opposing team spent a good chunk of the second half on the ground to burn off the clock and avoid costly turnovers while protecting an early lead that the losing team's offense couldn't match.

To argue that offense matters more than defense does might seem like arguing that it only matters how hard your side pulls on the rope in tug-of-war, not how hard the other side does. Yet defenses in the NFL are mostly fungible. Tampa 2 is a bit of an exception, where the outsized importance of the middle linebacker is akin to the quarterback's, albeit to a lesser degree, but the phrase "cookie cutter" gets (over)used so often because it is accurately descriptive. If an offense can move the ball in the air against a standard NFL defense, that team is likely to be found still playing in January.

It's sometimes asserted that special teams are one-third of the game. It's not true in terms of duration and rarely feels like they are as important as downs from scrimmage. The table above confirms that feeling.

Turnovers and penalties? Turnovers, yes. Penalties, not so much. The Colts and Cowboys were the least penalized team in the league this year. The Raiders and Lions were the most penalized (even if penalties don't appear to be significant in the outcome of games, it is telling that the notoriously dirty Raiders and Detroit, which was embarrassingly chippy this season, accumulated the most fouls).

* Of course, especially stout defenses are still helpful. The Ravens and 49ers both have shots at the Super Bowl primarily because of the strength of their defenses (or, in the case of San Francisco, the astounding and league-leading +28 turnover ratio that continued in the upset against New Orleans). To oversimplify, next weekend features the Ravens and 49ers representing defensive primacy and the Giants and Patriots the power of offensive dominance. Should make for some enjoyable spectating!