Last December, the Pew Hispanic Center released a report entitled "Between Two Worlds: How Young Latinos* Come of Age in America". For those with an interest in the future socio-cultural environment of the US, there is plenty to think about. Following are a few words on some of those things.
Steve Sailer has observed that subsequent generations of Hispanics are indeed assimilating to US norms of behavior. But they are black norms, not white ones. In a similar vein, they come into the US with socially conservative positions on high-visibility issues like abortion and same-sex marriage. Those who have been in country longer, however, are more liberal. Only 25% of young Hispanics feel abortion should be legal, compared to 38% and 58% of second- and third-generation Hispanics. When it comes to same-sex marriage, 39% of the same first-generation Hispanics support it, while 48% and 52% of second- and third-generation Hispanics do.
Relatedly, new arrivals place relatively more responsibility on the shoulders of Hispanics for their underwhelming levels of educational achievement. While 51% of first-generation Hispanics identify the tendency for Hispanic students not to work as hard as other students as a "major reason" for their struggles, only 22% and 11% of second- and third-generation Hispanics do.
First-generation Hispanics are also less perceptive of the relentless bigotry of their new host country than Hispanics who were born here are. Among first-generation Hispanics, 32% assert that they, a family member, or someone they know well has been discriminated against because of race or ethnicity. For those of second and third generations, 40% and 42% say the same. Funny that, in addition to wearing swarthy skin and having a last name like Lopez, being unable to speak English, eating out of a lunch pale under the shade of a tree in a convenience store lot, wearing pointy-toed boots, and listening to the same music one hears while waiting in line for a Six Flags' roller coaster actually makes one less of a target for racial discriminators than only having brown skin and a surname that ends in the letter z does!
To complement a recent post on future demography at the state level, the following table shows composite racial^ percentages of the US population by age cohort:
(Pacific Islanders are included in the "Asian" category)
Drawing from this table, it looks as though four decades down the road, Hispanic representation among those living in the US will double at the expense of whites. Blacks will tread water, and the Asian share should stay pretty flat as well. Census projections, however, predict a doubling of Asian representation over the same time period. The Census also suggests that the Hispanic share is a little understated, and should be about one-quarter of the total population. These further increases again come at the expense of whites, who are predicted to constitute half of the US population by mid-century. The differences in the preceding table and the Census numbers, of course, are due to immigration--there are lots of people coming here from China and India, but the Asian total fertility rate in the US is right at 2.0, slightly below replenishment.
* Humorously, more than twice as many Hispanics prefer that descriptor over "Latino" (35% to 14%), while half (51%) don't express a preference one way or the other. Even though it is not favored by Hispanics and is less sensible than the term "Hispanic" (Hispanics speak Spanish, not Latin), media types--including Pew, apparently!--are apt to use "Latino". I presume this is because it is more difficult for native English speakers to correctly pronounce "Latino" than "Hispanic"--doing the lipsy thing with the "t" signals a level of cultural sophistication that is to be admired and emulated!
^ Unless otherwise noted, "non-Hispanic" should be assumed to precede each racial category except for "Hispanic".
Steve Sailer has observed that subsequent generations of Hispanics are indeed assimilating to US norms of behavior. But they are black norms, not white ones. In a similar vein, they come into the US with socially conservative positions on high-visibility issues like abortion and same-sex marriage. Those who have been in country longer, however, are more liberal. Only 25% of young Hispanics feel abortion should be legal, compared to 38% and 58% of second- and third-generation Hispanics. When it comes to same-sex marriage, 39% of the same first-generation Hispanics support it, while 48% and 52% of second- and third-generation Hispanics do.
Relatedly, new arrivals place relatively more responsibility on the shoulders of Hispanics for their underwhelming levels of educational achievement. While 51% of first-generation Hispanics identify the tendency for Hispanic students not to work as hard as other students as a "major reason" for their struggles, only 22% and 11% of second- and third-generation Hispanics do.
First-generation Hispanics are also less perceptive of the relentless bigotry of their new host country than Hispanics who were born here are. Among first-generation Hispanics, 32% assert that they, a family member, or someone they know well has been discriminated against because of race or ethnicity. For those of second and third generations, 40% and 42% say the same. Funny that, in addition to wearing swarthy skin and having a last name like Lopez, being unable to speak English, eating out of a lunch pale under the shade of a tree in a convenience store lot, wearing pointy-toed boots, and listening to the same music one hears while waiting in line for a Six Flags' roller coaster actually makes one less of a target for racial discriminators than only having brown skin and a surname that ends in the letter z does!
To complement a recent post on future demography at the state level, the following table shows composite racial^ percentages of the US population by age cohort:
| Age | White | Hispanic | Black | Asian | Other |
| 0-15 | 55.3% | 22.6% | 14.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% |
| 16-25 | 60.9% | 18.1% | 14.3% | 4.2% | 2.6% |
| 26+ | 69.8% | 12.9% | 11.0% | 4.8% | 1.5% |
(Pacific Islanders are included in the "Asian" category)
Drawing from this table, it looks as though four decades down the road, Hispanic representation among those living in the US will double at the expense of whites. Blacks will tread water, and the Asian share should stay pretty flat as well. Census projections, however, predict a doubling of Asian representation over the same time period. The Census also suggests that the Hispanic share is a little understated, and should be about one-quarter of the total population. These further increases again come at the expense of whites, who are predicted to constitute half of the US population by mid-century. The differences in the preceding table and the Census numbers, of course, are due to immigration--there are lots of people coming here from China and India, but the Asian total fertility rate in the US is right at 2.0, slightly below replenishment.
* Humorously, more than twice as many Hispanics prefer that descriptor over "Latino" (35% to 14%), while half (51%) don't express a preference one way or the other. Even though it is not favored by Hispanics and is less sensible than the term "Hispanic" (Hispanics speak Spanish, not Latin), media types--including Pew, apparently!--are apt to use "Latino". I presume this is because it is more difficult for native English speakers to correctly pronounce "Latino" than "Hispanic"--doing the lipsy thing with the "t" signals a level of cultural sophistication that is to be admired and emulated!
^ Unless otherwise noted, "non-Hispanic" should be assumed to precede each racial category except for "Hispanic".
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