Our children are our future, right? So we'd best have an idea of who they are. The 2009 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) scores are out, and the companion site is laden with worthwhile data.
In the US, 12% of school age children are enrolled in private schools, so NAEP does not capture them. It's difficult to find a demographic breakdown of private school students at the national level, but using 2005-2006 data from the National Center for Educational Statistics, I calculate it to be 75.5% white, 9.5% black, 9.2% Hispanic, and 5.8% some other race (unless otherwise noted, "non-Hispanic" should be assumed to describe each category other than Hispanic). At the national level, public schools are 55.8% white, 17.0% black, 21.1% Hispanic, 4.8% Asian, and 1.2% Native American (2007 data). Thus just looking at public education stats slightly shrinks the size of the white slice of the Millenials pie, while correspondingly increasing the non-white share.
The following table presages the demographics of the future by showing racial percentages of the public school student body (8th grade) at the state level, ordered by the most important indicator of social failure (no, bigot, not low test scores, by the percentage of the student body that is white!):
("Asian" includes Pacific Islanders; "NatAm" = Native American)
Clearly Vermont, like neighboring New Hampshire, will continue to be one of the worst places in the country to live for decades to come, while California and Nevada will continue to get better and better!
Excluding DC and Hawaii, New Mexico is the only state in the US where whites currently do not consitute a majority. In a generation, several other states concentrated in the Southwest and South will follow suit.
According to Bill Clinton, this will be "good for America". I'm skeptical. But that's not the purpose of the post--relaying the data is.
In the US, 12% of school age children are enrolled in private schools, so NAEP does not capture them. It's difficult to find a demographic breakdown of private school students at the national level, but using 2005-2006 data from the National Center for Educational Statistics, I calculate it to be 75.5% white, 9.5% black, 9.2% Hispanic, and 5.8% some other race (unless otherwise noted, "non-Hispanic" should be assumed to describe each category other than Hispanic). At the national level, public schools are 55.8% white, 17.0% black, 21.1% Hispanic, 4.8% Asian, and 1.2% Native American (2007 data). Thus just looking at public education stats slightly shrinks the size of the white slice of the Millenials pie, while correspondingly increasing the non-white share.
The following table presages the demographics of the future by showing racial percentages of the public school student body (8th grade) at the state level, ordered by the most important indicator of social failure (no, bigot, not low test scores, by the percentage of the student body that is white!):
| State | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | NatAm |
| Vermont | 95.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.3 |
| Maine | 94.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| West Virginia | 93.0 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| New Hampshire | 92.5 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 0.3 |
| North Dakota | 86.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 8.38 |
| Kentucky | 85.2 | 10.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| Iowa | 85.1 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| Montana | 84.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 11.4 |
| Wyoming | 83.9 | 1.6 | 10.0 | 1.1 | 3.5 |
| South Dakota | 83.2 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 11.2 |
| Idaho | 81.6 | 1.2 | 14.0 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Indiana | 78.9 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| Utah | 78.9 | 1.5 | 14.7 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| Ohio | 78.6 | 17.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.1 |
| Wisconsin | 76.8 | 10.5 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| Minnesota | 76.4 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 2.1 |
| Missouri | 76.1 | 17.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| Nebraska | 75.4 | 8.0 | 12.9 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Pennsylvania | 74.0 | 15.9 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.2 |
| Kansas | 73.2 | 8.9 | 13.5 | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| Massachusetts | 72.2 | 8.3 | 14.1 | 5.0 | 0.3 |
| Oregon | 72.2 | 3.1 | 17.6 | 4.9 | 2.2 |
| Michigan | 71.5 | 20.3 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Rhode Island | 69.9 | 8.9 | 18.3 | 3.1 | 0.7 |
| Tennessee | 68.6 | 24.8 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| Washington | 68.0 | 5.7 | 15.1 | 8.6 | 2.6 |
| Arkansas | 67.0 | 22.6 | 8.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Connecticut | 65.2 | 13.9 | 16.6 | 3.9 | 0.4 |
| Colorado | 61.5 | 6.0 | 27.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 |
| Alabama | 58.9 | 35.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Virginia | 58.6 | 26.6 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 0.3 |
| Oklahoma | 58.1 | 10.8 | 10.0 | 1.9 | 19.2 |
| Alaska | 57.1 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 25.3 |
| North Carolina | 56.8 | 29.0 | 10.3 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| Illinois | 55.4 | 19.9 | 20.4 | 4.0 | 0.3 |
| New Jersey | 54.9 | 17.4 | 19.4 | 8.1 | 0.2 |
| South Carolina | 53.7 | 39.3 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| Delaware | 53.0 | 33.0 | 10.4 | 3.2 | 0.4 |
| New York | 51.6 | 19.5 | 21.0 | 7.4 | 0.5 |
| Louisiana | 49.2 | 46.0 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Florida | 47.6 | 23.9 | 25.7 | 2.5 | 0.3 |
| Georgia | 47.5 | 39.2 | 10.0 | 3.1 | 0.2 |
| Maryland | 47.0 | 37.9 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 0.4 |
| Mississippi | 46.4 | 50.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| Arizona | 44.5 | 5.6 | 41.6 | 2.8 | 5.4 |
| Nevada | 43.1 | 11.0 | 36.4 | 7.9 | 1.5 |
| Texas | 34.8 | 14.3 | 47.2 | 3.4 | 0.3 |
| New Mexico | 29.6 | 2.6 | 55.6 | 1.4 | 10.9 |
| California | 29.4 | 7.7 | 50.2 | 11.9 | 0.8 |
| Hawaii | 19.4 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 73.0 | 0.6 |
| District of Columbia | 5.4 | 83.2 | 9.9 | 1.5 | 0.1 |
("Asian" includes Pacific Islanders; "NatAm" = Native American)
Clearly Vermont, like neighboring New Hampshire, will continue to be one of the worst places in the country to live for decades to come, while California and Nevada will continue to get better and better!
Excluding DC and Hawaii, New Mexico is the only state in the US where whites currently do not consitute a majority. In a generation, several other states concentrated in the Southwest and South will follow suit.
According to Bill Clinton, this will be "good for America". I'm skeptical. But that's not the purpose of the post--relaying the data is.
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