It's commonly reported that the turnout for US midterm elections differs from presidential elections. I've always assumed this to be the case without thinking about it in anything more than a general sense. Because any type of restraint on voter participation--whether it is a legal restriction like being incarcerated at voting time or just one of volition like bad weather or a hip black friend not being up for election, is good for those on the right--I figured numbers for whites, the affluent, and older folks would drop off less than they would for minorities, the poor, and the young.
Exit polling allows for actual quantitative comparisons to be made, and the following table does just that, looking at the change in the absolute number of voters from 2008 to 2010, and, more interestingly, the declines in percentage terms across various demographic categories:
Unsurprisingly, black numbers dropped the most. Blacks are the most 'racist' group in the US, and there weren't any high profile races across the country involving black candidates. Consequently, more than one in three blacks who voted in 2008 stayed home in 2010 (where the black option existed, though, blacks kept pace with whites--blacks constituted 25% of the electorate in South Carolina in 2008, and did so again in 2010). The "other" figure decreased from 3% to 2% from '08 to '10 according to exit polling data, but that's presumably more an artifact of reporting percentages in whole figures and probably shouldn't be taken seriously.
The drop among those aged 18-24 is the only category, save for the "other" racial classification, precipitous enough for the 2010 total to be less than half of what it was in 2010. Black ops is in, helping the hip black guy push through his political agenda is out. We'll vote for our favorite celebrity, but not for his Congressional allies. How boring! I advocate emulating Hertz and Avis and raising the voting age to 25.
Those of retirement age, in contrast, maintained virtually the exact same numbers as they did in '08. As age increases, the drop in participation steadily decreases. The recent elections were decided by adults.
Among those earning up to $200,000, the decreases are consistent. Only the rich deviated from the overall trend, coming out in relatively greater force than the rest of the population. Deficit spending driving the US economy off the cliff and all that matters to people with money.
The relationship between educational attainment and voting rate changes is, as in the case of age, clear and consistent. Nearly half of those who didn't graduate high school who voted in '08 did not vote in '10. That only applied to one-eighth of those with graduate degrees.
An obvious reason the Democratic party took a shellacking this time around is that liberals and Democrats were less motivated to vote than they were in '08. In contrast, self-described conservatives were out in close to the same numbers both elections.
Not only was the election decided by adults, the adults were far more skeptical of government involvement in society than the kiddos were a couple of years ago. In '08, 60 million voters shared the sentiment that "government should do more". This time, only 32 million voters did. And they were a minority--47 million said "government is doing too much".
I assume California, where several "key" elections took place, is the reason that the decrease in the west is smaller than it is throughout the rest of the country.
Exit polling allows for actual quantitative comparisons to be made, and the following table does just that, looking at the change in the absolute number of voters from 2008 to 2010, and, more interestingly, the declines in percentage terms across various demographic categories:
| 2008 | 2010 | Abs chg | % chg | |
| Male | 55190120 | 40125074 | (15065046) | (27.3) |
| Female | 62235668 | 43468831 | (18766837) | (30.2) |
| White | 86895083 | 64367307 | (22527776) | (25.9) |
| Black | 15265352 | 9195330 | (6070023) | (39.8) |
| Hispanic | 9394063 | 6687512 | (2706551) | (28.8) |
| Asian | 2348516 | 1671878 | (676638) | (28.8) |
| Other | 3522774 | 1671878 | (1850896) | (52.5) |
| 18-24yo | 11742579 | 5015634 | (6726945) | (57.3) |
| 25-29 | 9394063 | 5015634 | (4378429) | (46.6) |
| 30-39 | 21136642 | 11703147 | (9433495) | (44.6) |
| 40-49 | 24659415 | 17554720 | (7104695) | (28.8) |
| 50-64 | 31704963 | 26750050 | (4954913) | (15.6) |
| 65+ | 17613868 | 17554720 | (59148) | (0.3) |
| <$30k | 21136642 | 14210964 | (6925678) | (32.8) |
| 30-50k | 22310900 | 15882842 | (6428058) | (28.8) |
| 50-75k | 25833673 | 17554720 | (8278953) | (32.0) |
| 75-100k | 17613868 | 12539086 | (5074782) | (28.8) |
| 100-200k | 23485158 | 15882842 | (7602316) | (32.4) |
| 200k+ | 7045547 | 6687512 | (358035) | (5.1) |
| Less than HS | 4697032 | 2507817 | (2189214) | (46.6) |
| HS grad | 24659415 | 14210964 | (10448452) | (42.4) |
| Some college | 36401994 | 23406293 | (12995701) | (35.7) |
| College grad | 32879221 | 25078172 | (7801049) | (23.7) |
| Postgraduate | 19962384 | 17554720 | (2407664) | (12.1) |
| Democrat | 46970315 | 29257867 | (17712448) | (37.7) |
| Republican | 38750510 | 29257867 | (9492643) | (24.5) |
| Independent | 32879221 | 24242232 | (8636988) | (26.3) |
| Liberal | 25833673 | 16718781 | (9114892) | (35.3) |
| Moderate | 51667347 | 31765684 | (19901663) | (38.5) |
| Conservative | 39924768 | 35109440 | (4815328) | (12.1) |
| Protestant | 64584183 | 45976648 | (18607536) | (28.8) |
| Catholic | 30530705 | 19226598 | (11304107) | (37.0) |
| Jewish | 2348516 | 1671878 | (676638) | (28.8) |
| Other | 7045547 | 6687512 | (358035) | (5.1) |
| None | 14091095 | 10031269 | (4059826) | (28.8) |
| Union member | 24659415 | 14210964 | (10448452) | (42.4) |
| No union member | 92766373 | 69382941 | (23383431) | (25.2) |
| Urban | 34053479 | 25914111 | (8139368) | (23.9) |
| Suburban | 57538636 | 40961013 | (16577623) | (28.8) |
| Rural | 25833673 | 16718781 | (9114892) | (35.3) |
| Gov't do more | 59887152 | 31765684 | (28121468) | (47.0) |
| Gov't does too much | 50493089 | 46812587 | (3680502) | (7.3) |
| Northeast | 27007931 | 17554720 | (9453211) | (35.0) |
| Midwest | 29356447 | 20898476 | (8457971) | (28.8) |
| South | 39924768 | 25914111 | (14010657) | (35.1) |
| West | 21136642 | 19226598 | (1910044) | (9.0) |
Unsurprisingly, black numbers dropped the most. Blacks are the most 'racist' group in the US, and there weren't any high profile races across the country involving black candidates. Consequently, more than one in three blacks who voted in 2008 stayed home in 2010 (where the black option existed, though, blacks kept pace with whites--blacks constituted 25% of the electorate in South Carolina in 2008, and did so again in 2010). The "other" figure decreased from 3% to 2% from '08 to '10 according to exit polling data, but that's presumably more an artifact of reporting percentages in whole figures and probably shouldn't be taken seriously.
The drop among those aged 18-24 is the only category, save for the "other" racial classification, precipitous enough for the 2010 total to be less than half of what it was in 2010. Black ops is in, helping the hip black guy push through his political agenda is out. We'll vote for our favorite celebrity, but not for his Congressional allies. How boring! I advocate emulating Hertz and Avis and raising the voting age to 25.
Those of retirement age, in contrast, maintained virtually the exact same numbers as they did in '08. As age increases, the drop in participation steadily decreases. The recent elections were decided by adults.
Among those earning up to $200,000, the decreases are consistent. Only the rich deviated from the overall trend, coming out in relatively greater force than the rest of the population. Deficit spending driving the US economy off the cliff and all that matters to people with money.
The relationship between educational attainment and voting rate changes is, as in the case of age, clear and consistent. Nearly half of those who didn't graduate high school who voted in '08 did not vote in '10. That only applied to one-eighth of those with graduate degrees.
An obvious reason the Democratic party took a shellacking this time around is that liberals and Democrats were less motivated to vote than they were in '08. In contrast, self-described conservatives were out in close to the same numbers both elections.
Not only was the election decided by adults, the adults were far more skeptical of government involvement in society than the kiddos were a couple of years ago. In '08, 60 million voters shared the sentiment that "government should do more". This time, only 32 million voters did. And they were a minority--47 million said "government is doing too much".
I assume California, where several "key" elections took place, is the reason that the decrease in the west is smaller than it is throughout the rest of the country.
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