The following table shows net support (% of voters supporting - % of voters opposing) for the tea party movement by state among voters in the 2010 mid-term elections. Exit polling was only conducted extensively in states where the Senate and/or gubernatorial races were at least somewhat competitive:
Nothing surprising here. The correlation between McCain's share of the vote in '08 and support for the tea party today is a nearly perfect .89. The phenomenon is a battle for the 'heart and soul' of the Republican party--there are very few leftists joining the cause.
What is remarkable is how the perceptions of the tea party compare with those of the two major parties. The following table shows net support for the tea party and each major political party, this time by net support for Democrats. Because the questions regarding the parties asks about favorability/unfavorability while the tea party question asks about support/opposition, it's not quite an apples-to-apples comparison, but it's close. For whatever reason, exit pollsters in five states did not inquire about feelings towards the two parties, so those states are omitted:
In no state does the GOP receive greater support than the tea party. I've resigned myself to the idea that I will be voting without exception for hopeless third party presidential candidates for my entire life, but if ever the ground seems fertile enough for a perennial third party to take root, now is that time.
Even in some competitive blue states like Pennsylvania, Oregon, and Wisconsin, the tea party does better than Democrats do. Even in solidly Democratic states like California and Illinois, feelings towards the tea party are decidedly mixed. Christine O'Donnell, like Sarah Palin, appears to have a knack for really grating some people. Consequently, opposition to the tea party is especially high in Delaware relative to its political profile.
| State | Support | Oppose | Net |
| 1) Texas | 48 | 25 | 23 |
| 2) Arkansas | 43 | 23 | 20 |
| 3) Indiana | 46 | 27 | 19 |
| 4) West Virginia | 40 | 24 | 16 |
| 4) Ohio | 43 | 27 | 16 |
| 4) Arizona | 46 | 30 | 16 |
| 7) Kentucky | 43 | 28 | 15 |
| 8) South Carolina | 43 | 29 | 14 |
| 9) Missouri | 41 | 28 | 13 |
| 9) Louisiana | 42 | 29 | 13 |
| National | 41 | 30 | 11 |
| 11) New Hampshire | 41 | 32 | 9 |
| 12) Colorado | 41 | 34 | 7 |
| 12) Florida | 39 | 32 | 7 |
| 14) Wisconsin | 37 | 32 | 5 |
| 15) Illinois | 36 | 32 | 4 |
| 15) Pennsylvania | 39 | 35 | 4 |
| 15) Iowa | 36 | 32 | 4 |
| 18) Nevada | 38 | 35 | 3 |
| 19) Oregon | 36 | 36 | 0 |
| 20) California | 34 | 35 | (1) |
| 20) New York | 36 | 37 | (1) |
| 22) Washington | 37 | 40 | (3) |
| 23) Connecticut | 35 | 42 | (7) |
| 24) Delaware | 35 | 45 | (10) |
| 25) Hawaii | 26 | 37 | (11) |
| 26) Vermont | 24 | 43 | (19) |
Nothing surprising here. The correlation between McCain's share of the vote in '08 and support for the tea party today is a nearly perfect .89. The phenomenon is a battle for the 'heart and soul' of the Republican party--there are very few leftists joining the cause.
What is remarkable is how the perceptions of the tea party compare with those of the two major parties. The following table shows net support for the tea party and each major political party, this time by net support for Democrats. Because the questions regarding the parties asks about favorability/unfavorability while the tea party question asks about support/opposition, it's not quite an apples-to-apples comparison, but it's close. For whatever reason, exit pollsters in five states did not inquire about feelings towards the two parties, so those states are omitted:
| State | Dem | Rep | TP |
| California | +6 | (28) | (1) |
| Illinois | +6 | (19) | +4 |
| Delaware | +5 | (20) | (10) |
| Washington | +4 | (23) | (3) |
| Pennsylvania | (1) | (13) | +4 |
| Oregon | (3) | (33) | +0 |
| Wisconsin | (6) | (4) | +5 |
| West Virginia | (7) | (4) | +16 |
| National | (8) | (12) | +11 |
| Colorado | (10) | (18) | +7 |
| Florida | (11) | (8) | +7 |
| Iowa | (11) | (2) | +4 |
| Nevada | (11) | (12) | +3 |
| Ohio | (11) | (12) | +16 |
| Missouri | (15) | (5) | +13 |
| Kentucky | (16) | +2 | +15 |
| Arkansas | (17) | +8 | +20 |
| Indiana | (18) | +5 | +19 |
| New Hampshire | (18) | (1) | +9 |
| South Carolina | (19) | +9 | +14 |
| Texas | (19) | +5 | +23 |
| Arizona | (23) | +1 | +16 |
In no state does the GOP receive greater support than the tea party. I've resigned myself to the idea that I will be voting without exception for hopeless third party presidential candidates for my entire life, but if ever the ground seems fertile enough for a perennial third party to take root, now is that time.
Even in some competitive blue states like Pennsylvania, Oregon, and Wisconsin, the tea party does better than Democrats do. Even in solidly Democratic states like California and Illinois, feelings towards the tea party are decidedly mixed. Christine O'Donnell, like Sarah Palin, appears to have a knack for really grating some people. Consequently, opposition to the tea party is especially high in Delaware relative to its political profile.
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