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Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Blue: "WotC, why hath thee forsaken me?"

The following post contains a discussion relating to the competitive M:TG standard format. For the vast majority of readers it will consequently be of no interest, so if you are among them, please don't waste your time.

It's no secret that blue is the, uh, red-headed stepchild of the current standard environment. Bant (mythic) is playable, spread 'em exposes jund's Achilles' heel, open the vaults has a consistent(ly small) presence, and UW control is around, but they collectively play second-fiddle to the jund, white weenie, and naya.

Alara Reborn clearly indicated that Wizards wants multicolored decks to dominate, but several mono-colored builds are still viable. White, of course, has white weenie. Black has vampires. Red has red deck wins. Even green has eldrazi elves. The only color that simply cannot go solo is blue.

As mono-blue control is my traditional M:TG home--in the early 2000s, before I went on hiatus, it and mono-black hand/land destruction were my two competitive decks--I find this lamentable. My shroud control build (running Deft Duelist, Wall of Denial, and Sphinx of Jwar Isle in addition to most of UW's standard suite) has served me well, but I'm clearly an exception to the rule.

As one who is empirically-minded, I wanted to back up that assertion with data, so I analyzed the standard top 100 card list (based on a meta-analysis of sanctioned tournaments), post-Worldwake. The following table shows each color's representation:

ColorPresence
White27%
Red21%
Black18%
Green18%
Blue12%

Lands are categorized based on the mana they produce (or in the case of fetch lands, the mana sources they are able to indirectly produce). Gold cards are assigned fractionally by their colors (Putrid Leech is .5 black, .5 green; Rhox War Monk is .33 white, .33. green, .33 blue, etc). Four of the top 100 are colorless (Tectonic Edge, Everflowing Chalice, Basilisk Collar, and Dragon's Claw), explaining why the percentages do not add up to 100.

Blue actually gets an artificial boost by the list's indifference to placement among the top 100. The first blue card does not come in until roster spot #34 in the form of Misty Rainforest, and the color comprises four of the bottom ten slots. That is, a full third of its representatives just barely squeak in.

Despite jund's dominance, white is the most heavily represented. It is the only color able to do it all--deal with spot threats (be they creatures, enchantments, or planeswalkers), engage in mass removal, gain life and prevent damage, provide both defensive chumps and beatsticks--the color's only weakness is its near-absence of card advantage (Knight of the White Orchid, Ranger of Eos, and Stoneforge Mystic being notable exceptions). White's strength helps carry blue in the forms of UW control and open the vaults. If white and blue were antagonistic colors, the standard format would essentially be a four-color game.

Rize of the Eldrazi might herald a serious return for blue, though. All is Dust promises the mass removal blue so severely lacks. The mono-blue control I used to run would not have been viable without the assistance of colorless gems like Nev's Disk and Mishra's Factory. If the absurd eldrazi monsters get any play (although I'm skeptical they will due to slowness off the starting block, especially with the surging popularity of naya allies), the relative shift toward the late game will work in blue's favor. Furthermore, both Jace and Mind Control generally provide great answers to them.

Here's hoping for blue's rebirth!

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