The Big 5 personality traits are intriguing, but aggregate measures are often unsatisfactory. I've previously posted on the counterintuitive inverse relationship between credit scores and conscientiousness at the state level as an illustration of this. Continuing that approach, the correlations with voting and estimated IQ for each of the five factors, as measured by Jason Rentfrow et al, follow*:
Because the data for all variables are by state ranking rather than by specific numerical value, linear correlations (for which I'm measuring) are likely to appear more robust than they actually are.
If a positive relationship between openness and voting for McCain was revealed, I'd really be ready to throw in the towel on inter-population comparisons, for reasons identified by Steve Sailer:
The slight positive correlation between agreeableness and conservative voting behavior doesn't strike me as surprising. Leftists seem to be more favorably inclined toward making their cultural and political opinions known than conservatives are, whether those opinions be solicited or not. Per capita, leftist causes also seem to draw more activists out to protest than conservative ones do--think gay rights demonstrations versus Nixon's Silent Majority. However, it contrasts with a 2006 study that found agreeableness, openness, and neuroticism correlated with voting for Kerry in 2004, while higher conscientiousness and extraversion correlated with voting for Bush.
The positive relationship between conscientiousness and supporting McCain is probably more expected. The attributes defining high conscientiousness tend to be celebrated as virtues by the Popular Right. They include being prepared, fulfilling duties and promises made, favoring structured settings to organic ones, being meticulous in one's work, etc.
The only relationship between personality traits and intelligence I've repeatedly heard or read about is the modest but positive relationship between openness and IQ. That is not evident here, nor are statistically significant correlations of intelligence with the other four traits.
* R-values show the strength of the correlation between variables and range from -1 to 1. Negative numbers indicate an inverse relationship (as one goes up, the other goes down), positive values show a positive relationship (as one goes up, so does the other), and zero indicates no relationship whatsoever. For our purposes, p-values essentially give the probability that the relationship is meaningless. For those of .10 or more, correlations should taken with little more than a grain of salt.
| Voting for McCain and... | r-value | p-value |
| Extraversion | .10 | .50 |
| Agreeableness | .28 | .05 |
| Conscientiousness | .41 | .00 |
| Neuroticism | (.17) | .23 |
| Openness | (.46) | .00 |
| Estimated avg IQ and... | r-value | p-value |
| Extraversion | .01 | .93 |
| Agreeableness | .05 | .70 |
| Conscientiousness | (.22) | .12 |
| Neuroticism | (.04) | .76 |
| Openness | (.02) | .87 |
Because the data for all variables are by state ranking rather than by specific numerical value, linear correlations (for which I'm measuring) are likely to appear more robust than they actually are.
If a positive relationship between openness and voting for McCain was revealed, I'd really be ready to throw in the towel on inter-population comparisons, for reasons identified by Steve Sailer:
Personality testing really needs some way to norm across subcultures. It seems like it does a fine job on, say, distinguishing among University of Illinois psychology majors, but once you get outside of a particular group with the same references, it falls apart on the between-group predictions (while, apparently, remaining okay within group).However, the two correlate in the expected way, so it doesn't appear we're trudging aimlessly through bitumen.
The slight positive correlation between agreeableness and conservative voting behavior doesn't strike me as surprising. Leftists seem to be more favorably inclined toward making their cultural and political opinions known than conservatives are, whether those opinions be solicited or not. Per capita, leftist causes also seem to draw more activists out to protest than conservative ones do--think gay rights demonstrations versus Nixon's Silent Majority. However, it contrasts with a 2006 study that found agreeableness, openness, and neuroticism correlated with voting for Kerry in 2004, while higher conscientiousness and extraversion correlated with voting for Bush.
The positive relationship between conscientiousness and supporting McCain is probably more expected. The attributes defining high conscientiousness tend to be celebrated as virtues by the Popular Right. They include being prepared, fulfilling duties and promises made, favoring structured settings to organic ones, being meticulous in one's work, etc.
The only relationship between personality traits and intelligence I've repeatedly heard or read about is the modest but positive relationship between openness and IQ. That is not evident here, nor are statistically significant correlations of intelligence with the other four traits.
* R-values show the strength of the correlation between variables and range from -1 to 1. Negative numbers indicate an inverse relationship (as one goes up, the other goes down), positive values show a positive relationship (as one goes up, so does the other), and zero indicates no relationship whatsoever. For our purposes, p-values essentially give the probability that the relationship is meaningless. For those of .10 or more, correlations should taken with little more than a grain of salt.
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